Once a year in August the economic minds of the world converge on Jackson Hole, Montana.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts dozens of central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world at its annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is one of the twelve (12) U.S. regional branches of the Federal Reserve Bank in Washington, D.C. Information about the symposium is here. The economic issue being addressed this year is Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy. The Fed of Kansas City has links to conference proceedings of past symposiums for review.
How about a short trip to Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming. Bloomberg News has a short video to show you the “digs” where the economists, etal. will convene: Inside the Central Banking Hangouts of Jackson Hole.
As I scanned the National Park webpage in writing this posting (evening of Aug 20) there was an alert: Bears are active in Grand Teton. O ho, is that a signal for the economists that the U.S. stock market is in a “correction?” For those, who do not follow the stock market news, a “bull” market is when the stock market is rising, and rising, and rising… a bear market is when the stock market is falling or “in correction”. A 20% correction seems to be the signal of a “bear market” according to many of Wall Street’s financial gurus. The U.S. stock market is in a downward path at the moment. The DOW Jones Industrial Average (the DOW) has been in a correction pattern for the few days. It has fallen from 18,097 to 16,991 over the last month.
Bull markets are characterized by optimism, investor confidence and expectations that strong results will continue. It’s difficult to predict consistently when the trends in the market will change. Part of the difficulty is that psychological effects and speculation may sometimes play a large role in the markets.
Many conversations during the weekend will probably include whether the Federal Reserve Bank will raise interest rates very soon. In fact the Vice Chairman of the Fed, Stanley Fischer, will be speaking at the symposium. As I have mentioned in earlier posts, the interest rate paid for savings accounts in the U.S. has been close to ZERO for almost ten (10) years.
Hang onto to your hats, the roller coaster ride is growing more interesting again!